The latest box office reports are tracking “Wish” in a close race for second place with Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon,” as the “Hunger Games” prequel “The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” holds on to the top spot. “Ballad” will take in an estimated $27.7 million across the three-day weekend and $41.1 million over the five-day Thanksgiving window. That’s more than enough to top the $32-33 million “Wish” and “Napoleon” are now on track for, and down considerably from the $49-66 million range “Wish” was projected to hit (via BoxOfficePro).
Thanksgiving is a big event in the movie business. Studios know every year that the holiday will fall right before the weekend, that most potential moviegoers will have the weekend off, and that they’ll be with family and eager for an easy group activity. That’s generally a recipe for success — especially for a family-oriented company like Disney. It has had massive success in the past with Thanksgiving contenders like “Frozen II,” which set a new record for the holiday with a whopping $125 million grossed over the five-day frame. What’s worse: the budget for “Wish” is an estimated $50 million higher than “Frozen II,” at $200 million. What went wrong?
First off, the film faced tough competition from films of various genres geared toward vastly different audiences. There was the “Hunger Games” film, always strong with young female audiences; “Napoleon,” sure to be a hit with dads; and Eli Roth’s “Thanksgiving,” which is bound to be popular with anyone over the age of 18, as horror often is. “Wish” also doubles as a centennial celebration of Disney animation, which isn’t easy to advertise and doesn’t necessarily jive with the film’s a-plot. In the animated-movies-for-kids field, “Wish” was competing with the latest entry in the modestly successful “Trolls” movie franchise. But another thing counting against “Wish” is the fact that, well, many people thought it was very bad.